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Catchment Models

Supermarkets & Grocers

  • ProVision is CACI’s catchment model for supermarkets with a net sales area above 3,000 sq ft. It defines catchments reflecting the local road network, individual location, demographic preferences and strength of competing stores.
  • The model is built using CACI’s Grocery List and Expenditure Estimates for grocery, weighted to match the overall size of the UK grocery market, including non-food sales, with internet sales being included implicitly in the model.
  • ProVision is modelled both at the OA and the Postcode Sector level. Stores under our 3,000 sq ft convenience threshold are included in order to better model the convenience leakage. Similarly, a weighting factor is also applied to stores over 30,000 sq ft to better model relationships between size and sales density.
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Key Uses

  • Target marketing campaigns more effectively by understanding the catchment extent and likely market share at a local level.
  • Ensure the right product range and promotional activity is in place by understanding the demographic make-up of shoppers at store level.
  • Estimate the relative potential for new stores.
  • Assess the impact of change across the retail grocery network (new stores, refits and fascia change) to ensure you react effectively.
  • Supplement rent review analysis with information defining the likely value of a site to a specific grocer.


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